Blackstone’s State-of-the-art COVID forecasting tool manually analyzes, validates, and aggregates data from thousands of authentic sources in real time and offers global COVID-19 forecasting by country for the next four months, for a wide audience of caring people around the world. We collect and process data around the clock as soon as an official announcement is made anywhere around the world and our team of analysts and researchers validate the data. Our sources include WHO, United Nations-population dynamics, China CDC, National Health Commission Of The People’s Republic of China, Hongkong Department of Health, Macau Government, CDC, Government of Canada, Taiwan CDC, Italy Ministry of Health, Ministry of Health Singapore, Australia Government Department of Health, and many others.

The healthcare industry is turning to real-world data and predictive analytics in pandemics to better understand, monitor, and prepare for whatever the virus may bring. For instance, if they expect an upsurge in cases in the next four days and the beds at their hospitals are all filled up, they will have time to construct temporary beds or arrange from external sources. Thorough knowledge base of COVID-19 with the help of machine learning is paramount for us to model and understand the spread of COVID-19, and eventually mitigate the repercussions of the virus on public economy, society, and health. The information can also help leaders recognize which geographic locations may need more critical care resources or stricter interventions.

The rapid spread of the pandemic has left many hospitals facing unprecedented strains on resources, with limited capacity to care for patients and a scarcity of ventilators to resuscitate critically ill patients. As such, the COVID 19 predictive healthcare tool helps predict surges in clinical demand, as well as best- and worst-case scenarios of COVID-19-induced strain on hospital capacity. Leveraging a model developed by the University of Washington (UW) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) but adapted to countries outside of the US, the tool can accurately estimate health service utilization due to COVID-19 by day, for the next four months, such as expected number of hospitalizations due to COVID, number of beds needed, number of ventilators needed, number in the ICU due to COVID, and implement microsimulation to calculate expected number of deaths. Hospital leaders and regional and state officials are strongly suggested to use this predictive healthcare tool to examine critical care capacity creation strategies with the help of assumptions based on data from their communities.

Leveraging the “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR)” mathematical model, Blackstone’s COVID predictive analytics and healthcare tool helps predict the development of the COVID-19 outbreak. In a nutshell, under this model, the population is divided into four categories: those who are susceptible to the virus, those who could potentially catch the disease due to various factors; the exposed, people have already contracted the virus but show no symptoms; the infectious, these make up the active cases; and the recovered. The tool works to forecast the number of active cases in the future with a spectrum of different social distancing degrees. Our team works meticulously when extrapolating data to ensure that there are few if any, inaccuracies, and the estimate of infected is revised and re-evaluated in comparison to actual every week. Predicted mortalities from the tool match very closely to the actual numbers on newly coming data.

Predictive modeling in healthcare and forecasts of new cases and hospitalizations will help inform public health decision making by projecting the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in coming weeks. With talks of reopening economy, policymakers are relying on predictive modeling in healthcare for help in predicting where new coronavirus cases may surge as stay-at-home orders expire.

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to soar across the globe, countries are adopting stringent intervention methods to curb the spread. Social distancing measures and lockdowns have become commonplace, and researchers are seeking to shed light on the potential impact of these approaches.
Blackstone’s cutting-edge predictive healthcare tool evaluates the possible outcomes of interventions such as social distancing and quarantine and the model can be set to show possible trajectories under different hypothetical scenarios within different locations, such as “with social distancing” and “without social distancing” disease propagation in Istanbul. The modelling frameworks shows how different types, durations, and intensities, of interventions impact the spread of the virus over time. The forecasts based on maximum and minimum social distancing efforts can help in gauging the impact of a policy on disease spread and may help governments draw back from a complete return to normalcy. Based on the predictive analytics and healthcare tool’s findings, protective efforts like mask wearing and hand washing, as well as stringent social distancing, may slow down the spread of the virus.